IGAD’S Climate Prediction Announces Expected Dry Conditions in the Greater Horn Of Africa

In a press release (16), dated May 24th, 2023, IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) announced that from June to September (JJAS) 2023, the forecast shows high chances of drier than usual conditions across the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Accordingly, Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Uganda, and much of South Sudan and Sudan are expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the season.

ICPAC’s analysis also indicates an increased likelihood of warmer than usual conditions over the entire region, particularly over northern Sudan, parts of southern and central to western Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya, central and northern Somalia, and coastal parts of Tanzania.

Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director, calls for heightened vigilance “as the conditions forecast could very well increase food insecurity in the region and also since the June to September rainfall season is particularly important for the northern regions of the GHA, where it contributes to more than 50% of the annual total rainfall.

He appeals to IGAD’s partners to “stay mobilized and continue to respond to the crisis where 49 million people are still highly-food insecure in the IGAD region while asserting that rainfall, coupled with warmer than usual temperatures, are likely to affect crop productivity, with the risk of crop wilting and a hastened decline in pasture and water availability.

ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization. Its seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions customized for the GHA. In this instance, ICPAC’s scientists have produced a consolidated forecast from seven models which increases its reliability, and the forecast indicates a drier JJAS 2023 season.