Kenya’s GDP is expected to decelerate to 5.5 percent, according to the World Bank.

According to the World Bank, the Kenyan economy would decelerate to 5.5 percent this year due to rising commodity costs, notably gasoline, and the consequences of drought.

According to the Bank, the nation will experience below-average rainfall, which would harm agricultural production and leave roughly 3.1 million Kenyans in need of food help.

The country’s economy will also be hampered by high commodity prices caused by global supply chain shocks as a result of the Ukraine crisis, which is pushing up inflation.

After GDP returned last year to rise at 7.5 percent in 2021, the strongest rate in 11 years, World Bank predictions are lower than Treasury expectations of six percent growth.

“Looking forward,” the World Bank noted in the Kenya Economic Update, “economic growth is forecast to decrease in 2022, with real GDP predicted to expand by 5.5 percent in 2022.”

Kenya’s economy recovered significantly last year, owing to a rebound in the services sector and an increase in industrial production.

Agriculture, the country’s biggest sector, decreased by 0.2 percent in 2021 due to drought conditions, down from a 0.9 percentage point contribution to GDP growth in 2020.

According to 2021 production predictions, inadequate rains cut maize yield by 3%, wheat output by 28%, and bean output by 13% below 2020 levels.

Drought has rendered 3.1 million Kenyans food insecure in pastoral and marginal agricultural regions due to below-average rainfall.

According to the bank, food insecurity is increasing in Kenya, and up to 5 million people would need food assistance by September 2022.

Kenya also confronts the problem of forthcoming elections, since the nation has a history of slowing down during election years, when corporations put investment choices on hold until the political scene returns to normality.

Economic growth, for example, dropped to 4.81 percent in 2017 as a consequence of the contentious presidential election, down from 5.88 percent the previous year.

Kenya’s economy is booming while Tanzania opens its borders.

The similar pattern was repeated in 2008, when the fallout from the violent December 2007 presidential election reduced economic growth to 0.23 percent from 6.865 percent the previous year.

The significant exception came in 2013, when the economy increased 5.8 percent after the Supreme Court settled a presidential dispute peacefully, compared to 4.56 percent the previous year.